The $14 billion Indian defence boost

Defying the US, India in this month inked the $5 billion acquisition of S400 systems from Russia This move of India to acquire the S-400, which has the ability to track multiple incoming targets, including aircraft, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, up to 400km in distance and 30km in altitude, can attract sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa) passed by the US Congress on arms purchases from Russia. This has to been seen in the context of the acquisition of 36 Rafale systems from Dassault Aviation based out of France for $7.8 billion. The IAF has a sanctioned strength of 45 fighter squadrons. However, the IAF is currently operating only 35 squadrons, which includes 11 squadrons of legacy aircraft like MiG-21 M/Bis/Bison and MiG-27. These 11 squadrons are due for retirement between 2018 and 2022. In the same period, the IAF is projected to add only six to seven squadrons, resulting in a major shortage in squadron strength.

 

Over the next few years, the IAF will add two more squadrons of Su-30MKI (2016-2019) from the current production line while two squadrons of Rafale will be delivered between 2019 and 2022. The IAF has also contracted 40 Tejas Mk1 & 80 Tejas Mk1A aircraft, of which three squadrons will be delivered by 2022.

The IAF has also sent out a request for information for a single-engine fighter to be manufactured in India under full ToT. The likely contenders are the F-16 Block 70 (purported Indian configuration) and the Gripen E. It is imperative that the Modi government moves quickly on this front so that the deliveries of the single-engine fighter could start by 2022-2024.

Currently, planned production of 14 squadrons of Su-30MKI (272 aircraft), two squadrons of Rafale, 120 Tejas Mk1/1A and a projected six squadrons (120 aircraft) of a single-engine fighter under ToT will constitute “nominal induction plan” for the IAF, representing the bare minimum modernisation path.

Clearly, even in the most optimistic scenario, the IAF will not realise its sanctioned squadron strength (45 squadrons) in the next 20 years. If the induction of fighter jets follows the nominal induction path, except for four years between 2016 and 2020, the IAF will operate below existing squadron levels for the major part of the next 17 years. Therefore, it is imperative that the IAF & Defence Ministry coordinate well to chase the “optimistic induction path”. Only such proactive planning will ensure a suitable squadron strength for the IAF in the longer term. Nevertheless, the bad news is that the IAF will have to operate at a low 32-33 squadrons during 2019-2024.

The Rafale jet is an excellent 4.5 generation fighter jet that comes equipped with potent armaments in the form of Storm Shadow stand-off ALCM and Meteor long-range BVRAAM. However, it is the low observable airframe equipped with an AESA radar and a SPECTRA jammer that makes it a potent force multiplier when the IAF’s inventory of aircraft is equipped with an ODL. Rafale would be able to leverage its low observable and long-range detection capabilities to detect enemy aircraft earlier, and share tactical combat information with other aircraft (such as Tejas, Mirage 2000 and MiG-29) equipped with an ODL. With its ability to act as a mini-AWACS or fighter director in a network-centric environment, the Rafale aircraft can be a significant force multiplier for the IAF. 

The multi-pronged force multiplier impact provided by the Rafale and S-400 missile systems is a much-needed shot in the arm for the IAF. Even with lower squadron numbers, the IAF would be able to establish air superiority over the western border with the upgraded Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 fighters supported by a small compliment of Rafales and/or Su-30MKI. This essentially allows the IAF to deploy a major portion of its best fighter assets (Rafale & Su-30MKI) to defend the northern border in  the eventuality of a two-front conflict